How will consumer's respond?

Every day seems to bring more daunting economic news. Fuel costs have reached unprecedented levels, loans are scarce, food prices have skyrocketed, houses won't sell, and stock prices fall almost every day. As the economy spirals downward, how will the consumer respond? Will we cut expenses, drive less, go out to dinner less, buy only what we absolutely need? My theory is that for the typical middle class consumer whose job is relatively secure, little will change. If companies start to sputter and unemployment begins to rise then job insecurity will lead to drastic changes in consumer behavior. Until then, in my opinion, there is a tolerance for rising prices and a slumping housing market. Our economy had a good run for 5 years, it's time for a leveling off, even time for a slump. For the next few years, we will see a glimpse of reality- things run in cycles, good balances bad. That's the way the world turns. We'll be just fine.

Paul's Rules of Courtesy

There are a couple of things that I think are just common courtesy. First, answer your phone and emails within 24 hours. Now blind solicitations are the exception, but if you know the person call or message them back. Second, cell voice mails should not be full. If you really don't want to talk to someone, its better for them to leave you an unanswered message then for them to have to call multiple times with no assurance to receive a callback. Third, if you arrive or leave the office for the day and pass by someone's office, say hello or good bye. It really won't bother the person on the receiving end even if they are busy, it will make them feel good that you care. Fourth, when you make a mess, clean it up. This is for the coffee drinkers who unintentionally spill, but intentionally don't clean up. Fifth, (and I'm getting better at this) when you pass someone in the hall always acknowledge with a smile or friendly hello. And lastly, if you expect to have a conversation, don't start it on email. Have a great day!

End of Year Message

Since my last posting I've has had my mind elsewhere. I have spend alot of time at home with my wife recovering from surgery and my sons coming home after their semesters in college. Now that I have caught up on some of my work, I thought I'd share some ideas on end of year reflection.
To me the end of each year brings another birthday, end of year spending decisions, budgeting for the next year and reflections on my life which culminate in resetting short term goals. My goals always consist of personal, family, business and "Big" idea goals. This year I met all of my short term goals despite a 2007 filled with personal and professional challenges. On balance, I maintained focus and with the help of family, friends and business associates, I learned alot about myself and will use the lessons learned in 2007 to be a better person in 2008.
I look forward to 2008 with renewed energy and enthusiasm despite the doom and gloom portrayed by the press. As individuals and businesses living in a free society, we own such a small slice of life, that each of us has such an opportunity to make a difference, albeit small. So, if I can have one wish for my family and yours, it is that 2008 be filled with much health and accomplishment towards a life filled with happiness and success.

Congratulations to the People of Venezuala

Today is a great day for democracy in the Americas. The brave people of Venezuala, many of whom love their leader, understood that democracy is more important than any one person. Chavez took a gamble to secure his role as dictator for life and lost. To his credit he allowed democracy to work. Let's hope for the sake of the people of Venezuala and South America, that he does not try to pull any other stunts. His people have been empowered and their leader is now in check. Hopefully, the Russians will learn this powerful lesson and follow suit in reigning in the power of Putin.

Shades of Gray

A leader takes shades of gray and makes decisions that perhaps result in black or white answers to the recipient. To be a good leader, it's important that those impacted by those decisions understand what went into the decision and that every angle was considered.
It is a leader's obligation to never look at an issue at face value. But, their approaches are very different. There are 2 types of leaders. These are examined in Fred Kofman's Conscious Business. The leader , who thinks that their truth is the truth, doesn't listen to input or dissent. His decision is black and white since no external input is accepted. The leaders I admire and try to emulate show ontological humility. They are learners; they are listeners. These leaders can be just as decisive but their decision-making process is somewhat more complex. But, I believe those decisions are inclusive, thoughtful and thorough.
Here's to my organization's leaders... may you make many good decisions with humility and a sense of greater purpose.

Thanksgiving Prayer

Happy Thanksgiving!
I say a little prayer to myself everyday and repeat it publicly at our Thanksgiving table each year- Please God keep my family happy, healthy, safe and secure. On this Thanksgiving I hope that my prayer comes true for you.
We are so fortunate to live in this country at this place in time and space. I don't think we appreciate what a great country this is. With all its warts, there is no place on earth that gives us opportunities to achieve success based on our ability, attitude and hard work. On this Thanksgiving day, on a day when my wife turns a special age, thanks to her and all those who have taught me the importance of appreciating what life has given me.

Challenging Times Ahead

I don't care how good an operator you are, I see lots of clouds on the horizon. Consumer tolerance for higher costs are directly proportional to their ability to absorb increased costs. The increasing costs of every day living- fuel, energy, food, health insurance, taxes- without a corresponding increase in wages, will force people to limit discretionary expenditures. The result for our businesses is that if you are dependant on discretionary spending of the middle class for your revenue growth challenges are on the way. For the food distributor: restaurant spending for middle income families will decline. My prediction is that mid-casual dining's growth will continue to be stymied. Fast food (low cost dining) should continue to grow and white table cloth dining- catering to business and the wealthy should remain stable. For the distributor, customer's will be very cost conscious and shop business more readily than in the past. That means margins for the distributor will be threatened. Cutting costs and aggressively pursuing competitor's business is the prescription for success in 2008.